McCain-Obama in Illinois
Published by Al Adomite on July 10th, 2008
Newsflash: Obama is not going to lose Illinois.
However, despite that fact, the numbers in Illinois are not stacking for Obama to thump McCain at the same level as Obama’s 70-27 drubbing of Alan Keyes in 2004. According to the latest Rasmussen poll, Obama leads 50-37 in a generic ballot test and 52-41 with leaners.
The more interesting aspect of the poll is this: “The two candidates are essentially tied among voters not affiliated with either major political party.”
Perhaps the Democrat avalanche thought to be headed towards Illinois in November is not as fueled by the “Obama Factor” as much as everyone thinks.
Other interesting factoids:
- Both candidates are viewed favorably by 60% of Illinois voters.
- [A] plurality of voters in Illinois (49%) sees the economy as the most important issue of Election 2008.
- Fifty-seven percent (57%) favor drilling in offshore oil wells to ease gas prices, while 32% are opposed.
- By a 36-30 margin, Illinoisans still say “free trade” is good for the US economy.
I remember Edgar’s 70 percent in 1994 being the high-water mark for the GOP. But, you have to think the national mood fueled both Edgar’s popularity and the GOP sweep in 1994, as well. At least, it wasn’t ALL just an Illinois trend that year.
Obama set a “70″ in 2004, but there wasn’t as much of a coattail that year and perhaps with the lack of straight-party balloting in Illinois, a year like 1994 will never happen again for either party. But, it would seem unlikely that Obama will get anywhere near 70 in Illinois this year.
With all the hype that down-ballot Republicans should fear a tsunami this year, do these polling numbers indicate that the Illinois political waters don’t look quite as bad?
Filed under State Issues
July 11th, 2008 at 10:05 am
I hate to spoil everyone’s dreams of lower gas prices by way of offshore drilling but I must:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/otheranalysis/ongr.html
My favorite website these days is http://factcheck.org/ — actually it’s been my fav for almost 8 years now. I’m a big believer of show me the facts. I’m still waiting to hear any factual information about why offshore drilling is a good idea. (Hi Al! I know you’re not shocked that I finally “piped” in!)
July 11th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Sharon:
Nice to see you joining the debate. Our readers will be shocked to learn my godmother is a big liberal
In looking at some stuff on the web this morning, I wonder why so much time and effort is being put into the energy debate.
Heck, if these scientists are correct, the natural cycle of oil production is going to tank anyhow, and mother nature will naturally correct problems in the environment. Imagine that, humans are so vain to think they control the world around them, and yet, now mother nature takes control back.
But, isn’t that what is lacking from this debate? Consensus on anything.
What is the global supply of oil? How accessible is that supply? What is a true estimate on global demand for the next 20 years?
If only the public would demand that Republicans and Democrats come to some agreement on some facts before they try to craft policy.
July 11th, 2008 at 10:50 am
I forgot to add that we, as a society, rob ourselves of the technological advances of the Internet, etc., that has led us into this information age, when the technology does nothing but cloud consensus, rather than build consensus.
The job of “journalists,” as described by their own creed, would be to blast through the diverging opinions and find “truth,” but modern drive-by media is content with “equally” showing “both” sides of an argument, even when the mantra taught such a short time ago was there are always “many” sides to an argument.
Two, many, who’s counting? We do ourselves a great disservice.